Another route for JuiceTrading

I was doing a little networking and was made aware of these guys:

Don Best Real Time Odds
SportsOptions

These guys sell subscriptions to what basically comes out to be an odds/information software, and prices that somewhat shocked me based on the market rates of the so-called "Arbs Alert" programs out there.

Don Best is priced at $499 a month, and SportsOption is at $299 a month. Outside of possibly having very updated injury reports, they're pretty vanilla compared to what we have. So if people are actually paying $499 a month for Don Best's software, I wonder what price we can fetch for ours?! We shall see...

Do I Have a Handicapping Software?

I'm sitting here at a friend's house waiting to go meet someone for business in 2hrs and was just thinking about my Juicetrading software. In theory, when you're arbitraging between 2 books, both books should end up losing in the long run, or one book wins and the other loses big. So given that, and the fact that Pinnacle is always on one of the ends, if...

1) Both books lose: If this is the case, then simply eliminating 1 side of the book will still ensure the user a profit
2) One book wins: Given that Pinnacle unadmittingly encourage arbitraging, we have to greatly assume that they're the book that wins in the long run. This means that eliminating Pinnacle will ensure the user a profit as well, but greater than if scenario #1 occurred.

So taking out the quantitative value for now, this should mean that just running the software but only betting the Non-Pinnacle side should ensure the user a profit - thus, a software that can beat the books.

If you're interested in the mathematical side of things, here's what I think:
What we are doing when we are arbitraging the sports line is balancing or equalizing the market. Because Pinnacle offers the best lines on the market, I'm going to assume that they're the market maker. Any large bettor will naturally bet on Pinnacle because of the discount on lines.

So given that, let's say on a Cowboys vs Redskins game, where Pinnacle has the following line:
Redskins +3 (+120)
Dallas-3 (-128)

And Book B has the following standard lines:
Redskins +3 (-110)
Dallas -3 (-110)

Right there, you have an arbitrage. Pinnacle has an opinion on Dallas, thus inflating their price to -128, which means that if you go and bet Dallas-3 on Book B, you'll be in essence gaining value at the price of -110. The value you gained from the market imbalance is where your profit come from... if all these theories were true.

In poker terms, the bet is +EV.

Eureka! A new idea!

I was just doing some free-time market research on Sports Arbitrage, and stumbled onto an idea... a Bonus Hunting software! Given that our software already automates the process if finding/betting games with a positive expectation, we can modify this so that bonus hunters can use it to place wagers at a slightly negative or even expectation to clear bonuses.

Time to start working on this new idea!

Want to Juice?

Here are some screenshots of arbs (I can literally provide you as many screenshots as you want, but this is enough to get the message across):

Some November 4 Arbs

Here's just a screenshot of 1 client's arbs for yesterday... everything matchines up 100%. Yes, you may find a losing arbitrage, but it's because a lined in the middle of a transaction, so the program took next best line available.

November 4 Review

Since I'm not putting in daily volume, I think I'll start posting an update after every 1000 hands. So far, the 1st 1000 hands went pretty well. I played mostly Full Ring. My stats are:

VPIP: 25.2
PFR: 18.0
3Bet: 4.8
BB/100: 19.40

I'm going to try to target 25-40k hands this month, hopefully doing better than a 5BB winrate.

October Review

I spent most of October working on Juice and preparing for the NBA season, so I really didn't have time to play poker afterwards. Thus, I took a shot at 5/10 hoping to jump start my poker game... had I won and built a good BR, I would've put in more hands and at higher stakes. But I didn't win, so I kind of lost my desire to play poker afterwards. And the times I did play, I didn't run as well (and made a few bad plays), so really never got poker going.



However, I did get one investor to BR me for 10k in return for 15k by May (6 months). So time to start building that BR up and get myself ready for Macau.

A Cool Live Hand

I got staked for some live 5/5 action last night, and here was the 1st live hand that I'm proud of the way I played.

The game was a crazy action game with a lot of straddle/restraddle etc,... I was in the BB with about $1700, and the BT had about $1400, who had the straddle. There were 4 other limpers in the pot, and when it came to me, I completed the straddle with Qs9c - the straddle BT checked.

The flop came:
QcJc6d with a pot of around $60

I led out $40, had 1 MP caller, and the BT called. At this point, I felt that my TP was good because given the fact that the MP called, he probably paired the J, some kind of straight draw, but not a flush draw (b/c he was a donk who would raise a flush draw)... when the BT called also, I didn't think he had a good hand because if he did, he would have re-raised to protect his hands (my read was that he was an aggressive player).

The turn came Kc, completing the flushdraw (pot is now $180). Given that I was 1st to act, betting out wouldn't give me much information because the callers could have hit the K or on a 1-card flush draw, so I checked. The MP guy checked (at this point, I know I have him beat), and BT bets $120. So now, my thoughts are that he either hit the K or is on a 1-card flush draw, so I check-raised him to $320 to see where I'm at. If he re-raised, then I know he has the flush, or at least had my Q beat trying to protect against the 1-card FD. However, he just called. So my read is still live. The only hand that I could legitimately lose to was Acxc. However, given that the villain was on the BT and straddled, I think that he would almost always raise any Ax suited cards, so I eliminated the nut flush from his holding.

The river came a blank 8d (pot now $820), so I checked to see what the villain would do, and he goes all-in for about $950. At this point, my read now was that he most likely had a busted flush draw. If he had the K or Q, he would have checked behind fearful of the flush. So when he goes all-in, he polarized his range from the nuts to air, and I already excluded the nuts, so I called and he mucked for a nice $2700 pot with 2nd pair no kicker.

PS: Of course, it's easier to make these plays when you're staked and not concerned about losing the money.... I came out last night up ~1400, so earned $600 as my share... so far, I've played 4 live sessions and have came out profitable in 3/4 (the losing session was when I got AA cracked).

Welcome October!

I tell my wife all the time, "Halloween is our holiday!" No, I'm no devil worshipper... it's just that the NBA season starts around Halloween. Do you know what that means? Juice Juice Juice every day... and it only gets better as NCAAB kicks into season in mid November. Can't wait... should be a good season if things hold as is.

Cool blog to share

This was a pretty cool blog:

When people think of Poker, the majority of people are quick to assume its pure gambling, all luck, and a degenerate style of living. These same people are the ones to look down on you if they find out that you play seriously because it’s not a “real” job.


I for one laugh at this thought and cannot possibly think of any other thing at this time that I’d rather be doing. AND I’LL TELL YOU WHY.


First and foremost, the freedom that you experience when you do something you love to do at your own discretion is beyond the means of currency.


I can’t tell you how many times I hear people complaining about having to wake up early or beating down their alarm clocks because they would die for a few more minutes of sleep and it makes me all warm inside because as a poker player, I don’t have that. There’s no fake calling-in sick because you have unlimited days off if you wish to take them. The hours are solely chosen by you. You’re free to spend more time with family and friends. How many times have you heard someone say “I’d pay a million dollars to be able to spend more time with my kids/spouse/friends”? Well… here’s your million dollar opportunity. There are no routines unless you choose so. You make your own schedule.


The second reason? You’re always on your toes. You’re forced to be observant. You have to keep the wheels in your head going. A successful poker player has to keep a fresh mind and be able to see things in a different light. And if you take these skills over to the “real world”, your eyes will open up. You start to see the motive behind people’s actions and better understand what they are trying to accomplish. It helps you avoid conflict and better connect to people.


And last but not least…? The network. The network for poker players is huge. There’s several discussion forums, study groups, dedicated sites, and not to mention thousands of casinos packed with people with common interests as you. I can’t tell you how many friends I’ve picked up through poker and created a strong bond with. The love of poker has connected me with doctors, lawyers, bouncers, realtors, city hall members, and professors (all of which are very helpful to be acquainted with) and all because the poker network is for the most part universal. Poker has no discrimination. Virtually every ethnicity, class, and occupation you can imagine is involved in poker."

A Catch-Up with Poker

It's been a while since I've blogged about poker. However, that doesn't mean that I have not been playing poker, I have just taken a different direction. Starting in August, I had deposited some funds into Full Tilt and when I wanted to get away from the grind, but still wanted to play poker, I jumped onto FT and played some deep stack poker. I actually started having some fun, and eventually just stopped the SNE chase on PS, and begin focusing strictly on deep stack play on FT. What I have noticed so far is that there are way more fishes on FT then there are on PS. My guess is because of the initial deposit bonus that FT offers as well as the better rakeback program for new players (PS makes you put in significant volume before you can get rakeback comparable with FT).

In regards to deepstack play, I find that it is a lot more fun and lucrative if you have the correct strategy. Unlike regular stack with just 100bb where there's very little room to maneuver postflop, especially if it's a 3bet pot, deep stack allows you more room postflop. Your edge over other players is tremendously increased deepstack, especially if you have position and can hand-read well. Here are my results thus far for the last 2 months... as you can see, I'm also running well, which is nice:



Here's my results so far for September. I have not played much since I work mostly on Juicetrading, and really only play when I feel like it, which hasn't been often. However, I think that works out better than having to grind like I was before since I'm generally more focus. It also helps that I'm running well:



It's funny how I was shooting for 5BB which my friends thought was highly unlikely, and I wasn't even close on PS... but just playing casually, I'm a 10.41BB overall in ~31k hands, and 12.27BB for the month of September in ~12k hands. Now realistically, I don't expect that number to stay up there, but even at half my winrate, I'm still over 5BB. Of course, there is a hidden inflation to my winrate. Because I play deep, I'm able to win bigger pots than I would normally win (of course, I can lose bigger pots too) - so I don't know how much that factors into accurate winrates.

So given my results, I've told Jason that I want to focus strictly on Deep play and want to specialize in that. Hopefully, if I can sustain the current results, I should be able to move up quickly and build a large bankroll - that'll surely help me get out of debt faster.

On a side note, I'm starting to realize that a good way for me to network for Juicetrading is to start playing some live poker. Poker and sportsbetting (or in my case, Sports Arbitrage) just goes hand in hand. So I'm going to attempt to play some lives games this week to see how well I can play. I may have someone stake me in a live 5/10 game, so let's hope I don't disappoint them on my first try. My strategy going into that session may be to try to play a lot of pots in position, and play pot control until I am confident I have the best hand (try not to go broke with 1 pair). Hopefully, if my online results can continue, I can use poker as a gateway to get more investors into Juicetrading. My thoughts are that most poker players do not mind risks as long as it's justified, and they have a sitting bankroll to invest. I just need to convince them that their money is safe with me, and I think the best way to do it is to just be a winning player. Wish me luck...

PS: for all my debtors out there wondering why I'm not putting the poker money back into SL now, it's because I still need to pay for coaching to make sure I continue to improve, and build a bankroll to move up faster so I can make more... I know I know, you want your money... it's coming soon.

Auxiliary Juicetrading information

I'm currently monitoring and troubleshooting Juicetrading with Sorin right now, and I think that there may be some good information that can come out of it. I'm starting to get a good idea of what books are sharper than what, and given that, I wonder if there's a way to parlay that information into a business/service...

There's a site called www.youcapper.com that actually tracks sports handicappers. I think once we have a sufficient sample size of arbitrages with various books, we can say with some certainty that book X is weaker than book Y. We may then develop a script to post our 'picks' on Youcapper as a way to monitor and have public track records of how different books perform..

.. and go from there.

A long Hiatus (with pictures)

I haven't been playing poker for a while because I've been working on Juicetrading. My wife then booked a last minute 1yr anniversary and my 30th birthday trip to Cabo. I found out last Saturday night and we flew out Tuesday morning - talking about a last minute trip. I got back Friday night, jumped right into work with Juicetrading, and been working on it since. I've been pretty burnt out after Juice, so really never got the motivation/energy to play poker.

In regards to poker, I'm going to take a different direction. Before, I was in the Pokerstars SuperNova elite chase, but I'm going to stop that and go a different direction. I've been playing/experimenting with some Deep Stacks/Ante games on Full Tilt focusing on quality versus quantity and found it to be a lot more fun and profitable. So for the rest of the year, I'm going to migrate over to Full Tilt and focus on improving my game and see where that takes me, then see what I have to improve once I go to Macau.

Some images from Cabo:

(1st day lunch)



(1st day after a Sunset Massage)


(2nd day Swimming with Dolphins)



(2nd day Para-sailing)




(2nd day Sunset Cruise)


(3rd day Snorkeling - never saw a single fish)




(My HOT wife..... she's probably licking her lips thinking how yummy I look - Control yourself Babe!)

====================================================================

On a side note, if you ever go to Cabo and want an inexpensive vacation, just go on the TimeShare tour. There's tons of guys trying to get you to do this from the minute you get off the plane until you leave. I talked to one guy at a restaurant and he mentioned that these TimeShare companies give guys around $700 to get you to go on tour, and they have to share some of that money with you. So you can do something like this:

Option 1) Go on a tour, free Taxi from airport to hotel, a free deluxe breakfast (worth around $40), and 2 free activities (such as the Para-sailing and Sunset Cruise) - we took this one.

Option 2) Go on a 2nd tour and get cash, dinner, paid rental cars, etc - just negotiate. (I don't know much about this one b/c we didn't feel like wasting another 2hrs on the 3rd day doing a tour).

The funny thing is that there is so much competition amongst these TimeShare companies. The guy that nabbed us at the airport told us that when we do leave our hotel to go on the tour, to make sure to tell the bellboy/taxi that we're just going to visit a friend at another hotel, and to just meet him outside the hotel on the road b/c he's not allowed to go in. He also warned us that if they found out we're going on tour, that they'll try to steal us. Unfortunately for him, we did what he said and met him on the road, but forgot our ID, so the taxi had to take us back to the hotel so we can get it. Once we got back to the lobby, there was another dude waiting there ready to nab us away. He basically told us a bunch of gibberish which we pretended to believe, and told us we'll be compensated the same for going on the tour our hotel was offering. Since we didn't feel like hopping into a taxi to go to the other one, we just took his offer. Just an idea of how much these TimeShare guys want your business.

I bet if you're savvy enough, you can negotiate almost your entire activity/dinner/trip expense by doing enough of these tours - if you don't mind wasting 2-3hrs a day and saying No-No-No to people keep trying to give you deals to buy the TimeShare (which I later heard that you can still get better deals online).

The break was nice to get my head cleared and step away from work. But, fun is over... time to get back to work for the rest of the year.

Sept 10 Self-Evaluation

I thought I was going to play a lot of poker yesterday, but ended up spending time on Juice when we found a bug... and never got the motivation to get back on. I do notice however, that my impatience is kicking back in. Originally, I thought that 24-tabling would kick my bad habits because I just needed to stay with a strategy, but when you're up against the same people on a lot of the tables, you can get ticked pretty easily when they're playing back at you on a bunch of tables at once. So I ended up catching myself playing high variance poker by taking more marginal/risky lines.

It's easy to tell yourself to stay with the strategy and just execute X moves, but when someone's constantly poking at you, it can get pretty annoying. I guess it doesn't help when you don't win... but then again, you can't win if you can't control your tilt... but then again, it's hard to control your tilt and win when you don't even feel like playing, but have to... are you starting to get a better idea of "It's a hard way to make an easy living"?

Anyways, I'm going to go back down to 9-12 tables to give my mind a semi-poker break (from 24 tables)... maybe the wins will pick up... as long as I can be patient enough to just stay with 9-12 tables... patience - what a nice thing to have :)

August Juice Review

I promised a Second Life resident that I'll start posting updates of Juicetrading as well...

1) So far, we have 4 clients (we'll refer to them as client A, B, C, D) on Net Total commission-based.
2) We rewrote most of our program and started with 4 books
3) We have now integrated 11 different books into our software

We used August as a debugging/test period and ran the program for MLB and NFL Preaseason. We actually found more arbs than we thought with NFLP as well as MLB. Unfortunately, since this is a 2-man team, we're limited on the things we can do given the time we have. We were running MLB for A only against 1 book. Given that we were finding a lot of arbs just against one book, we decided to add more books that will run MLB. However, MLB is a more complicated sport to script because of the MoneyLine vs Runline (we only did RL in other sports), the way transactions with pitchers are executed (Listed vs Action), double-headers, Odds listed for the Next Day (same teams playing), so we had to be very careful in adding the books. Unfortunately, we weren't careful enough, and a small bug cost A $10,000 USD. So right out of the gate, we have a client who's down $10,000 for the year. We decided to scrap baseball for now... too much risk for development alone for a 2-man team. I have to play poker to earn money, so I did not have time to sit and monitor/verify the program/transactions all day. So that's a bummer because against 1 book for 1 client, the program was making around $200 per week. I estimate that not having baseball for the rest of the season might have cost our clients up to $10,000 in potential profit.

So our Total Client Profit for August:

Client A:
Week 1: -8155 (b/c of the baseball bug)
Week 2: 1898
Week 3: 1364
Week 4: 2432

Client B:
Week 3: 128
Week 4: 394

Client C:
Week 2: 89
Week 3: 342
Week 4: -1038 (we had a bug which I'll explain later)

Client D:
Week 3: 622
Week 4: -696 (same bug affecting Client C)

I really don't feel like doing the math (b/c I should really get to playing poker), but add that all the above up to get a Total Net profit, add in $60 server cost per week per client, and calculate 25% of that, you'll get the estimated Management Profit (our share).

So going into September, we have a growing list of things we need done and just hope no major bug comes up. Regarding the bug above, it was basically because our program found a false arbitrage (between different games), made the transaction, and both transaction lost rather than 1 win and the other lose. We originally thought it was a bug with our program, but today think that it was because the new servers had Internet Explorer 8 on it, which our program isn't fully compatible with. And now, on top of that, we have 1 server that cannot even get into a site, and I'm having a major problem just explaining this simple problem to tech support! So I've basically spent the last 2 days trying to verify all transactions, update everything, and troubleshoot bugs after bugs, and get tech support to fix this issue. We also have to urgently add in NFL 1st and 2nd half (2nd half links to lines were not available until last night) because we only have 2 days a week to arbitrage, and don't want to miss out on the profits.

As you can see, my plate is pretty full. I've been working for close to 8 hours and haven't even got to poker yet. And the weekend starts tomorrow, which means monitoring and troubleshooting all day (then poker at night). I know there will be a lot of bugs b/c we added so many things this week, and upgraded on servers.

Any investors wanting to jump in and pay for development, now's the time to ask.

My brain is in overdrive... need to take a 1hr break before hitting the tables - haven't made diddly squat this month in poker.

Sept 9 Self-Evaluation

I played an overall straight game yesterday, and didn't get into too many tough spots. Looking over the hands, there weren't any mistakes that's noticeable, probably because I didn't get in that many hands. I'm falling behind on my goal of 150k hands this month, so I'm going to bump up the grind today since there's not much for me to do regarding Juicetrading (we have alot of work to do, but it's all on Sorin's part since it's mostly programming now).

Sept 8 Self-Evaluation

I'm starting to forget to do a self evaluation before starting because I've been getting started so late due to work on Juicetrading. Yesterday was another typical day where I started out well, but ended bad. However, I did spew off a stack in one-hand because of my 3betting aggression and willingness to get it in so light. Have to continue to work on not being so spewy. Just being spewy in one hand basically wiped out what could've been a profitable day.



===================================================================

This was the hand I mentioned above. The player is a winning player who we've been 3betting back and forth during the session, and when he 3bet me, I instantly decided to 4bet to an amount that will commit me. However, after re-evaluating, it's just not a good play. If I do get the money in, I'm at best 50/50 against AK because I do think he'll get it in with anything worse than TT.

UTG ($402)
UTG+1 ($413.45)
MP1 ($337.75)
Hero (MP2) ($197)
CO ($262)
Button ($360.95)
SB ($221.90)
BB ($333.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, SB raises $21, 1 fold, Hero raises $52, SB raises $199.90 (All-In), Hero calls $139 (All-In)
Flop: ($396) J, Q, A (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: ($396) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($396) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $396

Results:
SB had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Hero had 10, 10 (one pair, tens).

Outcome: SB won $417.90

Sept 7 Self-Evaluation

Another bad day yesterday. Started off the day bad and it just kept going downhill. I played a pretty tight 12.6/10.3 style with only 5.2% 3bet, so I didn't get out of line. I just ran into a lot of people with weird straights that you didn't expect, like a fish limping on the Button with T7s, called my raise (QQ), and hits a 849r flop. I only lost 2 100BB hands, and that was with KK in the CO vs 22 in the BT who hit a set, and QQ going all-in preflop vs AK. The rest of the hands were 50BB or below losses, but had quite a few of them... just hope this bad run turns around soon. I looked at my stats and am running close to 35 buy-ins (or $7000 in my case) below EV - ouchieeeee!

Sept 6 Self-Evaluation

Finally a winning day... nothing big to brag about, but a solid day overall.

Sept 5 Self-Evaluation

Played another solid game yesterday, but again, the results didn't show. I was able to maintain my patience and stuck to the strategy, but ran into some made hands or got outdrawn, which you can tell by my EV line. Hope the bad run stops and the cards start getting better....

Sept 4 Self-Evaluation

Yesterday started off well, but then took an a** whooping in my second session. Kept getting the 2nd best hand, and running into sets left and right. Overall, I still think I'm playing very well, the results just aren't coming in, but that's OK, it will............. eventually.

Sept 3 Self-Evaluation

I have to say that my tilt control and hero-calling is getting better. I still made one bad call yesterday, but played well overall (even though the results didn't show again). But I think that I've been playing well and if I just keep doing what I've been doing, that the results will eventually come. I've also been able to play this style while 24-tabling, so even if I break even for the month, I would still be the equivalent of a 1BB winner had I just played 9-12 tables like last month, which is nice.



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This was the hand I mentioned above. There really wasn't anything on the flop that the villain would call 2 streets except with a Flush draw, and when he donks out near pot, I think I can let go of this hand. Yes, he could be bluffing, the I think situations like these are all about frequencies, and I don't think the frequency is high enough to be playing bluff-catching. A fold here on the river.

Button ($207.70)
SB ($457.05)
BB ($216.50)
UTG ($225.70)
UTG+1 ($238.70)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($603.40)
Hero (CO) ($213.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
4 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4
Flop: ($13) K, K, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10
Turn: ($33) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB calls $25
River: ($83) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero calls $72

Total pot: $227 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had 3, 9 (flush, King high).
Hero mucked A, K (three of a kind, Kings).

Outcome: BB won $224

Sept 2 Self-Evaluation

Felt like I play well yesterday even though the results didn't show... I had to work all day with Juice since today is the start of our season, so didn't get in any hands until late during the day, before I did this review, but I'll leave that session review for tomorrow.

Sept 1 Self-Evaluation

Kicked off September with a great start. The difference was that instead of waking up and playing poker, I woke up, worked on Juice all day, went to the gym, came back and ate a tuna salad for dinner (I've been eating unhealthy lately, so going to start semi-fasting, meaning eating mostly fruits/cereals/salads with chicken breast or fish for a week), and THEN played poker. At that point, I was fully awake, had energy, and was able to play focused poker. I didn't get tilty or spewy, or made any hero calls. I was basically playing my A game the whole way, even while 24-tabling and playing very aggressive. I know it may sound ridiculous, but I told my friends that I'm going to hit 5BB this month (that's $20 per 100 hands). That actually is a number that most people will never reach, let alone while playing so many tables. However, I'm confident that if I can play my A game every time, that I can actually achieve it, so we'll see.



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I ALMOST made a call on this hand, but The Korean next to me was playing poker, looked over, and said I should fold it (the villain was also a regular who I know will not bluff in this spot once I thought more about it). At first, I was like ugggg, but once I clicked that fold button, I actually felt good. I know that I can be laying down the best hand here some times, but not enough to be making these calls, especially since I've made so many of them last month and we know the results. If I can keep making these lay-downs, I think I'll have a very good month. Sometimes, it feels good to fold...


BB ($227.75)
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($197.35)
MP1 ($215.80)
Hero (MP2) ($255.60)
MP3 ($336.15)
CO ($257)
Button ($339.40)
SB ($200)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
3 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, Button calls $6, SB calls $5, 1 fold
Flop: ($20) J, 2, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, SB calls $14
Turn: ($48) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $38, SB calls $38
River: ($124) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero folds

Total pot: $124

Results:
SB didn't show

Outcome: SB won $171
====================================================================
This hand is against the same villain. While I had planned to 4betting and getting it in with most people behind me because of the possible squeeze play, I don't think I should have done it here, because the villain is a good thinking player, and no way would he make a squeeze that size against a super-tight UTG raiser. I also know that this villain will flat JJ/QQ most of the time in his spot, so I'm pretty much dominated by most of his 3betting a tight UTG range. I'm not going to chalk this up to a bad play because against most other villains, this is a play I'll actually make, just not against this guy. It's a fold against him.

Button ($187.50)
SB ($239.15)
BB ($202)
UTG ($182.75)
UTG+1 ($444.55)
Hero (MP1) ($222)
MP2 ($203)
MP3 ($227.20)
CO ($452.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
UTG bets $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds, CO raises $27, 4 folds, Hero raises $49, CO raises $425.15 (All-In), Hero calls $167 (All-In)
Flop: ($453) 4, 9, J (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: ($453) J (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($453) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $453

Results:
Hero had K, A (one pair, Jacks).
CO had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).

Outcome: CO won $680.15

Month of August Review

August was not a good month overall, mainly because of bad play. I simply made too many hero calls, did too many bluff-catching rather than playing for value, and calling too many turns with draws or betting with draws when my hand has little equity. While I did run around -$4000 below EV, I don't put too much emphasis on that part since it seems like most of the good players I know run below EV.

My Net profit for the month was -$821 and rakeback profit was $2890 giving me a profit for the month at $2445 - not particular good and is actually a record-worse month. But, I cannot blame it on anything my mostly myself, since we did track my total mistakes loss at $-2890 for the month, which without those would have put me at $5780 for the month in profits.

Going into September, I'm just going to wake up when I'm ready, and play poker when I want to, rather than forcing the issue when I'm not mentally into the game and will just leak money. I'm still going to target a high volume of hands, shooting for around 150,000 hands or 3,000 hands a day 24-tabling, which is about 3 hours of poker a day. This may be tough given that Juice season is about to kick into gear with NCAAF starting tomorrow, but then again, there are only games mostly on weekends, so I should still be able to put in the poker volume as long as we don't incur any bugs with our program, and most of the development/troubleshooting is done by then.

Anyways... GL to me....

Aug 31 Self-Evaluation

I didn't go to bed until 3am last night, so I didn't get up early enough to get in some hands, and have been working on our Juicetrading software all day, adding and monitoring NCAAF bets (I'll discuss Juicetrading more in future blogs). But played well overall yesterday - stuck with the strategy of playing just solid poker. Nothing special to write about yesterday... I'm going to do an end of month review later.

Aug 30 Self-Evaluation

Not a good day yesterday. I was constantly getting outdrawn on the turn or river, or getting the 2nd best hand a lot. This led to me making too many hero calls and didn't play my A game. I'm just going to use today to get into the mentality of playing my A game again, and use it to carry me into September, which I'm confident I'll turn things around soon.

Aug 29 Self-Evaluation

Had a good day yesterday even though I didn't get in that many hands because I was working on Juicetrading again. Ran a little bit under EV, but can't complain about a winning day. Looking back at my hands, I don't see any mistakes, which is good, again. Let's hope this continues as I've been able to play very focused poker. I'm now EVEN for the entire month, which sucks, but better than being down.

Aug 28 Self-Evaluation

I actually started my session before doing my evaluation, but I got my warm-up working on Juicetrading first and talking to Sorin (progammer). I'm starting to get back into my grove (hopefully) by just playing straight up poker, not getting tilty or thinking people are making plays at me, and just letting go of hands early. The results are starting to show (or I could be running well), but I think overall, I'm starting to play focus/untilty poker.

Aug 27 Self-Evaluation

Another day of break-even poker. I didn't get in that many hands because I was working on our Juicetrading software, so nothing really interesting to discuss - no big mistakes either.

Aug 26 Self-Evaluation

Played break even poker yesterday. However, I think that in trying to target certain numbers, I'm starting to play too robotic, and less thinking/creative poker. And because I'm trying to vamp up my 3betting, it's causing me to be overly aggressive and spewy (you'll see in the hand below). So rather than forcing myself to try to hit some target numbers, I'm just going to play aggressive, but try to not get carried away.
==================================================================

This is definitely a hand where I let my aggression go out of control. There was absolutely no reason to re-raise all-in on the turn. I was either way ahead or way behind, and should have just called to re-evaluate on the river. He would have shoved on the river, so I could have folded and saved myself $104. Another -$104 to a bad play. I also shouldn't have been in this spot in the first place, but I let my aggression get out of control by defending 3bets too lightly.


BB ($315.90)
UTG ($205)
UTG+1 ($275.05)
MP1 ($206.05)
MP2 ($172)
MP3 ($204.10)
Hero (CO) ($206)
Button ($194)
SB ($458.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, 10
5 folds, Hero bets $6, 1 fold, SB raises $15, 1 fold, Hero calls $10
Flop: ($34) 10, 2, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24
Turn: ($82) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $62, Hero raises $166 (All-In), SB calls $104
River: ($414) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $414

Results:
SB had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had J, 10 (one pair, tens).

Outcome: SB won $411

====================================================================
The kind of river calls in this hand below are the stuff that makes me want to kick myself in the ass every day. I keep making these bad river calls even though the villain looks like he's clearly value betting while beating TPTK. While it's still a nitty fold, I think that I should have definitely folded in this spot on the river. Add another $-82.

CO ($293.50)
Button ($206.35)
SB ($244)
BB ($183.90)
UTG ($206.65)
Hero (UTG+1) ($209.70)
MP1 ($309.55)
MP2 ($98.35)
MP3 ($206.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6, 3 folds, CO calls $6, 3 folds
Flop: ($21) 2, 4, A (3 players)
UTG bets $13, Hero calls $13, 1 fold
Turn: ($47) 10 (2 players)
UTG bets $31, Hero calls $31
River: ($109) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $82, Hero calls $82

Total pot: $273

Results:
UTG had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Hero had A, K (one pair, Aces).

Outcome: UTG won $270
====================================================================

Another example of a clear fold. Cannot make any excuses for this hand... another $-65.

MP2 ($487.65)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($237.60)
Button ($273.50)
SB ($101)
Hero (BB) ($221)
UTG ($262)
UTG+1 ($239.40)
MP1 ($197)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, A
7 folds, SB bets $5, Hero raises $16, SB calls $12
Flop: ($36) 2, A, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($36) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises $83 (All-In), Hero calls $68
River: ($202) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $202

Results:
SB had 7, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Hero had 3, A (one pair, Aces).

Outcome: SB won $199
====================================================================

I'm just not playing my A game this month. I'm letting people take me to value-town too easily, and overplaying my hands when I'm usually beat. I'm still not giving people credit for hands and keep thinking they're bluffing, when they're usually not at these limits. So far, I've lost $-2890 in pure bad plays or simple mistakes. I simply should learn to fold.

Aug 25 Self-Evaluation

I didn't get in many hands yesterday as I was working on some Juicetrading stuff. Overall, not a good day. Took a few bad beats and just didn't want to play much afterwards.



Target Numbers: Not a good day overall hitting the target numbers. I analyzed my 3betting numbers and I played my button a little too weak yesterday, probably because of the increase in tables. So going to go back down to 9-12 tables today - plus, playing that many tables just becomes a headache and isn't as fun.

PIP (Target 15-20%) = 12.6
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 11.0
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 36.2
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 93.1
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 6.9
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 100

Aug 24 Self-Evaluation

I continued with the stacked 24-table method yesterday and managed to get in 0ver 3000 hands in 3 hours, which means I was averaging about $40/hr from playing. However, I did find spots that I missed because of the lack of time to make decisions.



Target Numbers: Not a good day in terms of achieving the target numbers. However, I was getting played back a ton on my 3betting, so I had to slow that down a bit. My cbet in 3bet pot was low as well because I only cbet 40% in the button, the reason being that I was getting called by people out of position, and when they do that, they're usually looking to do a check-raise more often than not.

PIP (Target 15-20%) = 14.5
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 12.6
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 43.5
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 82.4
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 6.9
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 70.6
====================================================================

The river should have been a fold. In the heat of the moment, I decided to call thinking he could have AQ, but after re-evaluating, I do not think the villain will bet this large on the river with AQ on that kind of board. Chalk up -$100 to a bad river call.

Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($34.25)
BB ($255)
UTG ($66)
UTG+1 ($57.40)
MP1 ($42)
MP2 ($34)
MP3 ($221.30)
CO ($206.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, J
4 folds, MP3 calls $2, CO bets $6, Hero raises $20, 2 folds, MP3 calls $18, 1 fold
Flop: ($49) 9, Q, Q (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($49) 10 (2 players)
MP3 bets $35, Hero calls $35
River: ($119) K (2 players)
MP3 bets $100, Hero calls $100

Total pot: $319

Results:
Hero had 2, J (straight, King high).
MP3 had 10, 10 (full house, tens over Queens).

Outcome: MP3 won $316
====================================================================

Like the above hand, this was a bad river call because given that I had an A, the villain is rarely trying to bluff this river after I called his turn bet. Looked like a pure value bet and it was... another -$68 to a bad river call.


SB ($238.30)
BB ($200)
UTG ($201.25)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($220)
MP2 ($616.20)
CO ($262.90)
Hero (Button) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
2 folds, MP1 bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises $21, 2 folds, MP1 calls $15
Flop: ($45) 8, 9, A (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($45) A (2 players)
MP1 bets $28, Hero calls $28
River: ($101) K (2 players)
MP1 bets $68, Hero calls $68

Total pot: $237

Results:
Hero had A, J (three of a kind, Aces).
MP1 had 8, 8 (full house, eights over Aces).

Outcome: MP1 won $234

====================================================================

This hand frustrated me the most because I should have fired the turn and river. When the 8 came out on the turn, I should have fired around $40, which would have made the pot $157 if called, and I can shove the river with effective remaining stack size of $125, enough to get me good fold equity. Just chickened out in the heat of the moment. But the turn was a perfect card to fire, as well as the River... bad bad bad play by me.


Button ($213.65)
SB ($71.80)
BB ($64)
UTG ($202.45)
UTG+1 ($254)
Hero (MP1) ($238.85)
MP2 ($205)
CO ($215.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, A
UTG bets $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 5 folds
Flop: ($15) 8, 4, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero raises $31, UTG calls $21
Turn: ($77) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $34, Hero calls $34
River: ($145) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $145

Results:
UTG had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and eights).
Hero had Q, A (one pair, eights).

Outcome: UTG won $142
====================================================================

So far, it seems that the increase in tables has led me to making some bad decisions. So now, I'm left with the option of going back down in tables or continuing with the increase in tables. The trade-off of course is that while I may make more mistakes, I also get in more hands, so maybe those mistakes can be compensated for winning more hands, and getting in more hands. I'll continue with the 22-24 table for a few more days and see if I can improve my decision making skill.

Total Bad Play losses for the month: $-2639

My education...

If you've read most of my blogs, then I'm pretty sure you know I'm a failure... so far at least. So what kind of an education does a failure have? We'll start off with the end of my Freshmen year in High School.

I ended my freshmen year as the #2 student out of approximately 450 students, and stayed there until the end of my senior year. Unfortunately, since I played sports in High School (gymnastics, swimming, track), I didn't earn any honors credit for those classes. While I was doing that, the #10 girl started taking honors classes that were guaranteed A's, and also took Honors band/choir, so eventually, she shot up and ended up being the valedictorian, and bumped me down to #3 by the time we graduated in 1998.

Even with the #3 slot, I was able to earn a full tuition to the University of Dallas (a private liberal arts school) worth about $10-12k per year. I parlayed that by loading up on classes so that I can graduate early. In my senior year, I had a semester of 22hrs and another of 24hrs, with May and Summer terms in between as well. I did manage to graduate in May 2001, three years as I planned with a BA in Economics. While I actually never put my BA to work, I have to honestly say that I got a lot from my education. Going to a private liberal arts college, there were no easy classes, etc. You were actually required to take classes in theology and philosophy. I hated those classes when I was in school, but now, I'm thankful for them because the classes taught me to think. Like one of my professor said, a liberal arts education is suppose to 'Liberate your mind.." True that!

Unfortunately, even though I earned a 4-year full tuition, the offer didn't carry over to graduate school. I forgot to mention that during my undergrad, I was taking classes that would carry over to graduate school, so by the time I got my BA, I was three trimester away from getting my MBA. So I ended up taking out a lot of loans to cover my graduate school and living expenses, and managed to get my MBA by August of 2002, 4 years removed from graduating high school.

Once I got my MBA, I thought the bucks was going to start rolling in. I mean, who does not want a young smart student who managed to get his MBA in 4 years. Boy, was I wrong... not only did I not get a job once I graduated, I NEVER got a job with my degree because the economy was still recovering from the dotcom bubble burst. And to this day, my degrees are still sitting behind me in a drawer collecting dust... yet, I'm left with over $50k worth of student loans. And that, my friend, is the education of a failure.

Next up, the first failed venture...

Aug 23 Self-Evaluation

Yesterday started off bad, but things turned around on my second session, and eventually ended up on the day even. Can't really complain given how much I was down at one point. I just reviewed my hands and there weren't really any bad plays. I tried a new style yesterday where I played 22-24 tables, and had them stacked one on top of the other. This resulted in:

1) My playing hourly rate increased about 65% because of the extra hands I got in an hour
2) I was playing more systematic and didn't get tilted by other's bad plays or bad beats since I don't get to see the results

While this may seem insane, it actually isn't because even though I'm playing 22-24 tables at once, I really only have to focus on the table that pops up, so really, I only have to focus on 1 table at a time. Yes, I will miss some tells such as timing tells (which I really couldn't pick up anyways with 9 tables) and see'ing what the fishes/non-regulars go to showdown with. But that can usually throw off my game because I would then over-adjust and have a weaker range against them then I should.



Target Numbers: I didn't hit my steal target, but got close enough. Overall, even though I added more tables, I was able to keep my aggression up, so that's a good thing. Let's hope it continues and if it does, my hourly rate should go up and my bad plays should go down given the layout strategy - GL to me today....

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 15.7
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 13.6
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 39.3
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 85.8
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 8.00
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 85.7

Aug 22 Self-Evaluation

Not much to say about yesterday since I didn't even get in that many hands and already took a beating, so just quit for the entire day. Ran close to $-900 below expectation, which now puts me at probably close to -$4000 for the month. In other words, I should be up $4000 more than I am this month.... blah. No point in analyzing anything today since the sample was too small... just hope for GL today.

A Non-Juicy Juice

Not that this is something to brag about, but I just felt like posting a screenshot of 2 arbs found yesterday. Nothing really to get excited about since the Net Juice between the 2 arbs was only 5 juice points (+121 vs - 120 and +154 vs -150). But then again, this was for baseball, which generally doesn't get many arbs at all, let alone large ones. Will post more of these as I feel like it...

Aug 21 Self-Evaluation

Yesterday started off to a good start, but took a sudden nose-dive and I never managed to get out of it. Looked over my hands and didn't really see any big mistakes in terms of calling down or paying off big river bets - simply lost a lot of the $50 - $80 pots being aggressive and not hitting my semi-bluffs.



Target Numbers: Didn't hit many target numbers this session. My 3bet cbet % was low because twice I felt like I was going to get check-raised by the villain who called out of position (which they tend to do). Unfortunately, I was wrong both times because the villain ended up having air or close to it. So need to stop being so concerned with being check-raised (a result of selective memory).

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 17.2
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 14.1
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 36.1
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 80.6
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 7.7
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 77.3

Aug 20 Self-Evaluation (Life of a Poker-Slave)

So you think so far, life must be good being a poker player? Well, you may want to think again. I'm still feeling the effects of the food poisoning and only managed to get in about 2hours of poker all day yesterday. Every time I tried to play, my head started hurting and fatigue kicked in. Unfortunately, I don't have any 'sick days', so if I don't play, I don't eat (a little bit of an exaggeration). And given my situation, I'm compelled to play as much as I can - time is money, literally. So here I am, fatigued even having slept 14+ hours yesterday, and am just hoping that I can get in a decent amount of quality hands today, and tomorrow, and the next day, and every day after that - basically seven days a week in sickness or in health. And on top of that, most of my friends went to New Orleans for a wedding this weekend, but I can't go because I gots no mulla and Da Boss says I gotsto work... plus, it's my 1yr anniversary next week, and I gotsto dish out some greenbacks for Da Wife. Better start hitting the tables Poker-Slave!

Anyways, yesterday was a decent day. It started off really well, and I thought I was going to have one of my killer days. Unfortunately, 2 1/2 coolers later and I was back to even. I managed to win a little bit before my headache/fatigue really kicked in and I couldn't go anymore.



I mentioned above the 1/2 cooler because while I should have folded earlier in this hand, the only hand I felt can stand to a triple barrel is something like A3/33 - not very many combos. I'm not going to call this a mistake because I like to be aggressive in these spots. I'm sure there'll be a ton of disagreement, but hey, poker is an art, not a science. But then again, I still think I should have given up on the river given that he called 2 streets on a super dry board. This was one of my later hands when my mind was starting to shut-down and lose focus. Nice Hand homie...


UTG+1 ($143.85)
MP1 ($203.35)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($239.65)
Button ($389)
SB ($251.50)
BB ($142.50)
UTG ($203.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 10
4 folds, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, 2 folds
Flop: ($15) 3, 3, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $12, Hero raises $30, Button calls $18
Turn: ($75) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $75, Button calls $75
River: ($225) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $128.65 (All-In), Button calls $128.65


Total pot: $482.30

Results:
Button had 3, 3 (four of a kind, threes).
Hero had 7, 10 (two pair, tens and threes).

Outcome: Button won $479.30
====================================================================

Target Numbers - I hit all of my target numbers except my steal, primarily because I had aggressive 3bettors to my left and knew I couldn't get away with it... but 35% still isn't bad, just not super aggressive as I like to be.

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 15.2
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 12.3
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 35.5
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 83.3
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 8.3
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 83.3

Pre-session warmup: Stay focus, stick to the strategy, be patient... give up early. (This is going to be a tougher session because I'm already starting to feel fatigue... will probably break the sessions down into multiple small ones).

Aug 19 Self-Evaluation

Got back into the action after a 1 day hiatus. It took a while to get back into the grove mentally, so my numbers started off low, particularly my 3betting. It also didn't help that I was getting played back on almost every 3bet I made. Overall, a good day - not great, but can't complain.



Target Numbers: I basically hit all my target numbers except my 3betting. As mentioned above, I was getting played back a ton, and started getting gun-shy. I also had quite a few regulars sitting around me, so I started backing off because I didn't think I would be successful. However, I think the goal is to keep pounding them with 3bet until they fight back consistently (3x in a row). So going to try to keep that up for today.


VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 16.2
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 13.4
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 45.3
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 84.8
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 5.7
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 90.0

Presession warm-up reminders: Stay focus, look to accumulate long-term chips, do not look at the short-term daily money, STAY PATIENT, be aggressive but back off to aggression, stick to the strategy.

Aug 17 Self-Evaluation

I didn't play yesterday because of food poisoning, so the last day played was Aug. 17. Played the session well overall. No big mistakes and managed to stay focus and stuck to the strategy.



Target Numbers - the only target I didn't hit was stealing, which was still close to the target. Numbers were well overall.

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 17.4
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 14.2
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 37.8
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 78.9
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 9.4
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 88.2
===================================================================

This river is a fold. My original thought was that the villain could be on a smaller pocket pair. But when he bets the river, he usually has TP beat, and would check down any pocket pair. Chalk up -$44 to a bad river call.


MP2 ($412.70)
MP3 ($257.55)
CO ($200)
Button ($200)
SB ($201)
BB ($248)
UTG ($243.40)
Hero (UTG+1) ($208.35)
MP1 ($241.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, J
UTG calls $2, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8, 6 folds
Flop: ($21) 9, J, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP2 calls $15
Turn: ($51) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $22, Hero calls $22
River: ($95) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $44, Hero calls $44

Total pot: $183

Results:
Hero had A, J (two pair, Jacks and nines).
MP2 had 9, 9 (four of a kind, nines).

Outcome: MP2 won $180

Presession warm-up: Stay focus... look at the long-term goal of accumulating chips... stick to the strategy... be patient.
===================================================================
Total Bad Play losses for the month: -$2471

Aug 16 Self-Evaluation

I woke up yesterday tired and never had focus for the session. When I don't have focus, I tend to get impatient and start playing spewy poker, doing things such as 1) getting it in preflop with medium pairs trying to race 2) getting tilty when people play back at me 3) getting Fancy Play Syndrome 4) Just doing stupid things at the table...

I should stay patient and stick to the strategy...

I should stay patient and stick to the strategy...

I should stay patient and stick to the strategy...

Let's hope that'll help remind myself to stay patient and stick to the strategy. I'm not going to replay the bad hands yesterday because they're the same mistakes I've been making - just spewy mistakes. Going to chalk up -$516 to simply being spewtastic.



Target Numbers: I didn't hit any except the PFR target because I was just not sticking to the strategy. I was letting the fact that players were 3betting/4betting me, calling my 3bet, etc affect my play, when I should just keep doing it. The goal is to pound on them, not to react to their aggression... STICK TO THE STRATEGY!!!

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 13.8
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 11.1
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 32.3
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 68.0
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 7.3
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 50.0

Pre-session Self Reminder: Don't look at the short-term money, the long-term goal is to accumulate chips.
====================================================================
Total Losses for bad plays for the month: -$2427

Aug 15 Self-Evaluation

I played somewhat tighter than the day before. However, this was largely due to having more aggressive players around me, so I couldn't raise and 3Bet liberally since I would get 3Bet or 4Bet back a lot. But, I still managed to play a solid game with no big mistakes. As I start cutting out these big mistakes, hopefully, I can start targeting the little mistakes. Those are harder to find since you generally don't know if it's a mistake or not given that you usually don't go to showdown... so maybe not mistakes, but just more optimal lines to take.



Target Numbers: I did not hit my target steal percentage this day, but that was largely due to having more aggressive players to my left. Same goes with 3Betting, but more so because I just didn't have many 3Betting hands.

VPIP (Target 15-20%) = 15.5
PFR (Target 11-15%) = 12.5
Steal (Target 40-45%) = 38.0
Flop Cbet (Target 77-92%) = 83.5
3Bet (Target 8-10%) = 6.3
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) = 88.2

Aug 14 Self-Evaluation (99% A game, 1% C game)

I once had a review session with Jason where I told him something along the line of, "Yea, I think I play well overall, about 90% of the time, I play my A game.." and his response was, "Yea, but those other few 10% can be very costly..." - or something like that. That cannot be any more true then yesterday. I was playing my A game all the way, but had a mental lapse on 2 hands that basically cost me a lot. Overall however, I'm starting to get back into the grove now that I'm use to the morning schedule. I was playing very creatively, being deceptive and aggressive, and was able to take a lot of pots down without going to showdown.



===================================================================
This was a TERRIBLE river value bet here. The villain is somewhat lose preflop, but is still an aggressive winning player. When he called the Fish's donk on that flop, and then check call my turn bet, my alarm bells had to have gone off. Unfortunately, I was being a fish and just thought, "OOOOOooooo, I have 2 clubs and the nut flush, he's in trouble now..." But if we examine his range, it would be hard for him to try to play for a flush in this spot oop. His flatting the flop/turn range is usually AA/88/77 in this spot. And given that I had the nut flush draw, I doubt he's drawing to a non-nut flush draw. I should have just checked when I have the nut flush and there's a full house on the board - chalk up -$140 to greed.

MP1 ($628.45)
MP2 ($214)
CO ($218.50)
Hero (Button) ($212.45)
SB ($148.55)
BB ($126.95)
UTG ($227.50)
UTG+1 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 4
3 folds, MP2 bets $6, 1 fold, Hero raises $20, 1 fold, BB calls $18, MP2 calls $14
Flop: ($61) A, A, 8 (3 players)
BB bets $8, MP2 calls $8, Hero calls $8
Turn: ($85) 7 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $45, 1 fold, MP2 calls $45
River: ($175) 6 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $139.45 (All-In), MP2 calls $139.45


Total pot: $453.90

Results:
Hero had K, 4 (flush, Ace high).
MP2 had A, A (four of a kind, Aces).

Outcome: MP2 won $450.90

====================================================================
When the villain (who was a fish) check-raised me here, it should be call and fold to a turn raise. Yes, I was playing deceptive, so it's hard for him to put me on AK. However, I doubt he's doing this with AQ. He could be on a flush draw or combo draw such as 76cc, but that's such a narrow range compared to made hands: AA/99/88/A9/A8/98/AK that at best, I'm just hoping for a chop-chop. Chalk up another $-144 to out deceiving myself.

BB ($165.55)
UTG ($205)
UTG+1 ($374.50)
MP1 ($200)
Hero (MP2) ($239.35)
MP3 ($194)
CO ($250.80)
Button ($212.70)
SB ($111.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
2 folds, MP1 bets $8, Hero calls $8, 5 folds
Flop: ($19) A, 9, 8 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $10, MP1 raises $48, Hero calls $38
Turn: ($115) Q (2 players)
MP1 bets $144 (All-In), Hero calls $144
River: ($403) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $403

Results:
MP1 had 8, 8 (three of a kind, eights).
Hero had K, A (one pair, Aces).

Outcome: MP1 won $400
==================================================================
This hand has a very small leak, but still a leak. I should fold on the river in this spot even with an overpair because the villain is always value-betting a better hand in this spot. This leak will be very costly in the long run if I keep making it. I should start to run hands that I actually can beat that will valuebet before I call. And specifically for this hand, that's only 99 - not that many hands. Plus, I doubt he'll valubet 99 here.. but I'm still a fish and called with "An Overpair". Another $-26 to just being a fish.

UTG+1 ($210.60)
MP1 ($190.95)
MP2 ($215.25)
MP3 ($278.05)
CO ($200)
Hero (Button) ($217)
SB ($238.15)
BB ($198)
UTG ($357.95)


Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
4 folds, MP3 bets $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds
Flop: ($15) 6, 8, 8 (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero calls $12
Turn: ($39) 4 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks
River: ($39) 5 (2 players)
MP3 bets $26, Hero calls $26

Total pot: $91

Results:
Hero had 10, 10 (two pair, tens and eights).
MP3 had K, K (two pair, Kings and eights).

Outcome: MP3 won $88
==================================================================
Total loss from being a fish this month: $-1911

A misplayed hand

I was playing this hand at NL200 Deep with antes of .30, and was playing a 36/32/3.91 style with 20.7% 3Bet over ~750 hands. The villain runs a 20/14 style. I won a 100bb pot from this villain earlier with 65o in a 3bet pot, so he knows my range is wide.

Given that, should I have followed up my bluff on the turn, to say $150. Given that we're both 300bb deep, it would be hard for him to call even with AK because I could have a 9 in my range, and he would be risking his whole stack on 1 pair drawing dead. And if he did not have that hand, it would be hard for him to call. My mistake was also giving him too much credit because I started thinking that if he can hand read, he can put me on a bluff here a lot of the times. When I bet the turn, I am being very polarized and betting only air or the nut. I would not valuebet AK here in this spot given the stack sizes, so I either have AA/A9/9x, which is a very narrow range. But, given that we're both really deep, I would have 4Bet AA, so you can take that out of my range. So the question is, will he believe I have a 9, and I didn't think he would and was concerned that he would make some hero calls since he saw me win with 65o. And if he does call the turn, he could be holding AA or a draw, and I'd have to fire a 3rd barrel just to find out... I chickened out, but I think a triple barrel is is the optimal play here since he can only call with AA. Thoughts?

I think that at 5/10, players are able to make this read. But I'm not sure if a 1/2 guy can...


UTG ($240.50)
Hero (MP) ($828.65)
Button ($390.80)
SB ($407.30)
BB ($716.05)


Preflop: Hero is MP with K, J
1 fold, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, BB raises $23, Hero calls $19
Flop: ($51) 2, 9, A (2 players)
BB bets $33, Hero raises $85, BB calls $52
Turn: ($221) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($221) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks


Total pot: $221



Results:

BB had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and nines).
Hero had K, J (one pair, nines).
Outcome: BB won $219.50

Aug 13 Self-Evaluation

Yesterday started off well, but didn't end so well as I started running into a few coolers and getting played back. No obvious/big mistakes, but solid play overall. Let's hope I can keep it going today:

Aug 12 Self-Evaluation

Started off yesterday well with the morning session, but then bad luck (and probably running into hands) took over in the afternoon session. My redline (non-Showdown) took a nosedive as I increased my 3betting and aggression, and just got played back a ton.



VPIP: 14.1 (target is 15-16%)
PFR: 12.3 (target 11-12%)
3Bet: 7.9 (target 8-10%)
CB 3Bet Pot: 57.9% (target 70%)

I was able to increase my aggression, but was not able to steal a lot of blinds preflop. I was not successful in taking down pots preflop with my 3bet either. I also started getting gun-shy in 3bet pots because I was getting played back a lot, so I slowed down in my Cbetting.
===================================================================
I wouldn't call the below hand a mistake, but I probably went for too thin of a value bet here. Once the villain checked the flop, it was hard to put him on AK. When he called my turn Raise-CB, I thought he had QQ/JJ and didn't believe I had the K either - thus the river value bet.

MP3 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($205.25)
Button ($228.40)
SB ($248.75)
BB ($222.75)
UTG ($126.30)
UTG+1 ($223.40)
MP1 ($677.75)
MP2 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, K
5 folds, Hero bets $6, 1 fold, SB raises $13, 1 fold, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($30) 6, K, 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($30) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $18, Hero raises $45, SB calls $27
River: ($120) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50, SB calls $50

Total pot: $220

Results:
SB had A, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
Hero had Q, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
Outcome: SB won $217
==================================================================
I chose to defend against this villain's 3bet because I felt he was 3betting me light (probably too light of a defense). But when he checked the flop, I should check back in these spots given that I have position and try to keep the pot small. On the turn, I definitely should have checked to try to get to showdown. Not a mistake, but not an optimal play on this hand.

Button ($332.90)
SB ($200)
BB ($210.25)
UTG ($217.05)
UTG+1 ($392.75)
MP1 ($303.10)
Hero (MP2) ($221)
CO ($230.35)


Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $6, 3 folds, BB raises $20, Hero calls $16
Flop: ($45) K, 6, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB calls $25
Turn: ($95) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $40, BB raises $163.25 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $175

Results:
BB didn't show
Outcome: BB won $295.25
================================================================
That's really it... I can see that I'm starting to cut out a lot of the call-down mistakes and playing more focus poker. I had a quick 5-minute review session with Jason yesterday regarding my 3betting because my concern was that I could be over-adjusting and 3betting + cbetting too much, but according to him, I really can't cbet enough in 3bet pots, so today, I'll be looking to play a very aggressive strategy. I'll also post a few target numbers to monitor some progress:

VPIP (Target 15-20%) =
PFR (Target 11-15%) =
3Bet (Target 8-10%) =
CB 3Bet Pot (Target 80%) =

Aug 11 Self-Evaluation

Logged in a solid day yesterday. I did bump up to 15 tables at one point, so that probably led to me being somewhat tighter. Some other numbers:

VPIP: 12.9 (target is 15-16%) - so I didn't cold call as much
PFR: 11.0 (target 11-12%)
3Bet: 6.4 (target 8-10%)
CB 3Bet Pot: 70% (target 70%)



===================================================================
In the below hand, the villain is a tight regular. I was going for a thin value bet, hoping to get value from AQ/AJ. However, when he shoved over my minraise, I think I should fold in this spot. My original thought at the time was that he could be shoving with AK and we'd split the pot, and really the only hand he's representing that I lose to is AA, which he ended up having. However, this villain is not the type to shove a hand to only split the pot. Plus, I could have a straight or a full house here, so if he did have AK, he probably would only call. Bad call... chalk up $-110 to lapse of thorough thought process. This is a play that I can make all day if I'm on the sideline. But in the heat of the battle with so much going on, my thought process was incomplete. This is why we should train these plays/skills to become habits so that we can execute them properly every time.

CO ($334)
Hero (Button) ($247.25)
SB ($200)
BB ($248.65)
UTG ($220.20)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($203)
MP2 ($210.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 2 folds
Flop: ($15) 9, A, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero calls $10
Turn: ($35) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20
River: ($75) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $30, Hero raises $60, UTG+1 raises $134 (All-In), Hero calls $104

Total pot: $403

Results:
Hero had A, K (two pair, Aces and fives).
UTG+1 had A, A (full house, Aces over fives).

Outcome: UTG+1 won $400
==================================================================
This wasn't a costly mistake, but a mistake nevertheless. My thought was that I should make a blocking bet and set my calling price, thinking that the villain could float me light because we have history. However, once the villain calls my double barrel, I think I should give up because he'll always show up with a Q. Another $-30 mistake.


MP2 ($358)
CO ($397.40)
Button ($192.35)
SB ($200)
BB ($277.90)
UTG ($117)
Hero (MP1) ($215)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 10, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 3 folds
Flop: ($15) 5, 8, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO calls $11
Turn: ($37) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, CO calls $22
River: ($81) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, CO calls $30

Total pot: $141

Results:
Hero had 10, 10 (full house, fives over tens).
CO had A, Q (full house, fives over Queens).

Outcome: CO won $138
==========================================================
Total Mistakes for today: $-140
Total Mistakes for the month: $-1601 (does not include the last few days b/c I'm too lazy to go back and analyze, so I added in about 3 buyins of mistakes, which I'm sure is still under-representing)

Aug 10 Self-Evaluation

I finally had a solid day of focus poker. I did not make any mistakes or made any bad calls. The only questionable play was the hand below. However, the villain was an aggressive regular who would stack off with TT/JJ on the right board. Plus, it was a 3Bet pot. Unfortunately, the results didn't say I had a good day - but can't be result oriented. I did take quite a few bad beats yesterday.




UTG ($235.35)
UTG+1 ($256.85)
MP1 ($231.80)
MP2 ($288.95)
MP3 ($206.35)
CO ($200)
Button ($161.35)
Hero (SB) ($225.85)
BB ($349.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
4 folds, MP3 bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises $19, 1 fold, MP3 calls $14
Flop: ($42) 3, 6, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $34, MP3 raises $68, Hero raises $171.85 (All-In), MP3 calls $118.35 (All-In)
Turn: ($414.70) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($414.70) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $414.70

Results:
Hero had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
MP3 had 6, 6 (three of a kind, sixes).

Outcome: MP3 won $411.70

10 days of bad poker

I've been playing some pretty bad aggressive poker right now. Bad habits keep showing up over and over again. I'm just trying too hard to chase the money, when I should be folding in a lot of spot, or I'm trying to bluff people off of top pair hands... The Shoulds:

a) I should play solid fundamental poker - stop defending against 3Bets and steals with trash
b) I should stop bluffing people off of made hands
c) I should stop trying to be overly aggressive
d) I should only play aggressive around the blinds such as BT vs CO or BT vs Blinds or Blinds vs BT
e) I should stop trying to chase the money
f) I should stop saying "Fk it, I got outs..."
g) I should start respecting re-raises A LOT
h) I should make small stabs at pots and give up, versus making big stabs and continue to stab if called
i) I should FOLD FOLD FOLD

Hopefully, re-reading these sets my mind straight and out of the poker rut... because I'm just in a funk right now and am compounding it with bad poker.

Aug 8 Self-Evaluation

Woke up feeling tired, went all-in on a few good draws and hit, and started playing unfocus poker afterwards. Took 2 bad beats and went on to play bad poker the rest of the day. Just going to chalk yesterday up as a loss and move on.

The "No Respect" Weakness

I've played about 2000 HU hands this past week, and feel like I'm 'crushing' the limits I play. I can read the opponent's tendencies, put them on a correct hand range, frustrate them with varying lines, value bet thin, play pots out of position, bluff correctly, and most importantly, FOLD CORRECTLY. So why am I not doing these things well in NL200 FR? The most likely reason is 'respect'. I'm not giving the opponents' hands enough respect by thinking they're full of it and trying to make a play at me, when simply, they just have a hand that BEATS mine - duh....

I should stop giving the NL200 credit for the ability to make advance plays on certain boards, and just tell myself they have a hand, so move on.

Aug 7 Self-Evaluation

I've been taking a small dab in Heads-up poker to test my mental/metagame and so far, it's not doing that bad. I'm not going to take too much stock in it for now until I have a large sample size, and will only do it as a side thing. However, playing it yesterday did finally give me a winning day. It only takes logging in 1 winning day to usually get the wins going, so hope it continues today:



I played my A game in my heads-up matches for most of the session, but started losing focus near the end and played this one hand bad. My read on the opponent was that he will make very thin value calls on the river, but usually value-bets a good hand. In this hand, I had planned to call the villain down, but when he did a bet/bet/bet, I think a river fold is better because I have seen him check down hands with Showdown value, so he's not bluffing a weak made hand such as AJ:


Hero (SB) ($583.25)
BB ($200)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
Hero bets $5, BB raises $20, Hero calls $16
Flop: ($44) K, J, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $32, Hero calls $32
Turn: ($108) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $44, Hero calls $44
River: ($196) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $102 (All-In), Hero calls $102

Total pot: $400

Another $-102 for bad play. Total now sits at $-861

"You can't fold that!"

Don't ever tell yourself that. I had laid out a thorough plan to play this HU NL100 hand and got distracted when The Korean next to me said, "You can't fold that..." But aside from the bad river call, here was my play... On the flop, the villain either smash that flop (86/8J/T9) or is on a draw (98/flush). So the plan is to bet/bet/bet, but instafold to any aggression because I do not beat any sets, or any straights. I ONLY beat T9, which is still a narrow range. On the river, the straight draw got there. I only beat his flush draws. River is a bet/fold because he will not bluff in that spot, or value bet T9. Make sure to always stick to your plan.... Thanks Sanchez!


SB ($200)
Hero (BB) ($1001.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
SB bets $2.50, Hero raises $8, SB calls $6
Flop: ($18) 9, 10, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, SB calls $20
Turn: ($58) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $50, SB calls $50
River: ($158) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $50, SB raises $121 (All-In), Hero calls $71

Total pot: $400

Results:
SB had 8, J (straight, Jack high).
Hero had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).

Outcome: SB won $399.50

Aug 6 Self Evaluation

Got murdered by fishes and crappy opponent plays yesterday:



I just fell asleep on this hand... I should have just called the river since nothing that would call my re-raise that I beat. Chalk up $-96 to falling asleep at the table:

MP2 ($185)
CO ($234)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($348)
BB ($200.10)
UTG ($260.40)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($408.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 8
5 folds, Hero bets $5, 1 fold, BB raises $16, Hero calls $13
Flop: ($37) 9, 7, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $26, Hero calls $26
Turn: ($89) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($89) J (2 players)
BB bets $60, Hero raises $120, BB raises $96.10 (All-In), Hero calls $36 (All-In)

Total pot: $401

Results:
Hero had 7, 8 (straight, Jack high).
BB had 9, 9 (four of a kind, nines).

Outcome: BB won $398.10
==================================================================
I should start folding trips in these spots when I get check-raised because the villain is a tight regular who would not be doing this with 1 pair or an overpair, and if he did have a T, he probably has me out-kicked. As tough as it may seem, I think this is an obvious fold. Another $-149 to a 'learning error'. This is a fold next time.

SB ($195)
BB ($196)
UTG ($219.60)
UTG+1 ($203)
MP1 ($652.10)
MP2 ($502.90)
CO ($210.25)
Hero (Button) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 10
2 folds, MP1 bets $8, MP2 calls $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, 2 folds
Flop: ($27) 10, 7, 5 (3 players)
MP1 bets $15, 1 fold, Hero calls $15
Turn: ($57) 10 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $28, MP1 raises $60, Hero calls $32
River: ($177) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $569.10 (All-In), Hero calls $117 (All-In)

Total pot: $411

Results:
Hero had J, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
MP1 had 5, 5 (full house, fives over tens).
Outcome: MP1 won $860.10
=================================================================
This hand was just a really bad bad beat for 200 big blinds and basically an encapsulation of how I've been running so far:

Hero (SB) ($456.30)
BB ($409.35)
UTG ($203)
UTG+1 ($256.70)
MP1 ($434.55)
MP2 ($332.90)
MP3 ($203)
CO ($211.75)
Button ($125.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
7 folds, Hero bets $4, BB raises $16, Hero raises $35, BB calls $22
Flop: ($80) 10, 9, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $45, BB calls $45
Turn: ($170) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $371.30 (All-In), BB calls $324.35 (All-In)
River: ($818.70) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $818.70

Results:
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
BB had 6, 6 (three of a kind, sixes).

Outcome: BB won $815.70
===========================================================
Total Bad play losses for the day: $-245
Total Bad play losses YTD: $-759 (need to start playing smarter poker obviously)

Set-Mining in 3Bet pots...

Found this article about set-mining in 3Bet pots... need to study this to better understand the overall math theory behind poker.

It's pretty easy to explain why setmining, even against a range as tight as JJ+/AK, doesn't work.

Assume the following example:

5/10, 1k effective stacks 6max

We open in MP to 30 w/ 66 and the SB 3bets us to 110 with a guaranteed range of JJ+/AK

In „immediate odds“ we are getting 150/80 = 1.875:1

On his remaining stack 890/80 = 11.125:1

(Note: this is above the 12:1 that's sometimes advocated to account for set over set or the villain missing the flop)

Now the flop comes 622r

Board: 6s 2c 2d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.687% 08.69% 00.00% 6192 0.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 1: 91.313% 91.31% 00.00% 65088 0.00 { 66 }

We are now gonna assume, that villain's 16 combos of AK are going to cbet 75% of the pot 100% of the time and he is going to stack off with all remaining 24 combos of JJ+ (16/40 = 40% (AK), 60% (JJ+))

Also, we are c/f'ing when we don't hit a set. So assuming 7.5x we don't hit a set and 1x we flop a set with 91.31% equity, it gives us the following EV.

7.5 x (-80$) + 0.4 x 172.5$ + 0.6 x (0.0869 x (-970) + ((0.9131 x 1040) -3))) =

-600$ + 69$ + 517.4$ = -13.6$

So even if we get our “dream flop” (that is not quads) and the villain does us the favor of giving us a rather sizable cbet 100% of the time we are losing money!

I could stop here, but let's look at another few flops to show it's really not all that close...

K62r

Board: Kc 6s 2d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.475% 17.47% 00.00% 10899 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 82.525% 82.53% 00.00% 51471 0.00 { 66 }

12 combos lose a 75% bet (JJ/QQ be it by cbetting or c/c'ing one bet)
9 (KK+) + 8(AK) combos stack off

(12/29 41.4% cbet, 58.6% stack off)

7.5x (-80$) + 0.414 x 172.5$ + 0.586 x (0.1747 (-970) + ((0.8253 x 1040) -3))) =

-600$ + 71.4$ + 401.9$ = -126.7$

J62ss

Board: Jc 6s 2s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.966% 22.97% 00.00% 15006 0.00 { JJ+, AsKs }
Hand 1: 77.034% 77.03% 00.00% 50334 0.00 { 66 }

15 combos lose a 75% pot cbet (AK – AsKs)
22 combos stack off (JJ+/AsKs)

(15/37 40.5% cbet, 59.5% stack off)

7.5x (-80$) + 0.405 x 172.5$ + 0.595 (0.2296 x (-970) + ((0.7703 x 1040) -3 ))) =

-600$ + 69.9$ + 342.4$ = -187.7$

(Note: also keep in mind, that in terms of ptbb, its even more -EV to do so in SSNL games where the rake is an even bigger factor)

Uggg...

Talking about a terrible run of cards so far... I'm running $3500 below EV (expected value). That means that instead of being up $2000 (the light green line), I'm actually down $-1500 (the dark green line) for the month after ~15,000 hands. It's basically a result of 1) Going all-in ahead and getting sucked out or 2) Going all-in with good equity but not hitting it... Usually, the blue line is a given to go up - just not lately.

A New Strategy

I just had a review with Jason and now have a new strategy: Be an aggressive nit

1) 3Bet more (target 8-10%)
2) Cold-Call less
3) Don't get to the turn with weak made hands - look for hands that can draw to a lot of equity
4) Without a read, let go of one-pair hands with no redraw early (on flop to any aggression)
5) Don't be stubborn on the turn with marginal holdings
6) KISS - keep it simple stupid

Daily game stats to track:
1) VPIP (target around 15-16%)
2) PFR (11-12%)
3) 3Bet (8-10%)
4) CBet 3Bet pots (70%)

Daily results stats:
1) Alpha (.90+) - this is an indicator of my preflop aggression winnings
2) Epsilon (3.00+) - this is an indicator of my 3Bet winnings preflop only
3) Vega CB (1.35+) - this is an indicator of my 3Bet winnings postflop

The Wife....

So I told my wife that I had a blog last night and she checked it out. Her only comment was, "why did you call me THE wife?" I explained to her that it's a title, kind of like The Boss (me trying to be), The Dog (my dog Timmy who's now 13yrs old), The Korean (my friend who plays poker with me every day), etc, etc... but she didn't buy it, so now, I'm dedicating this post to My Wife... there ya go babe :)

Aug 5 Self-Evaluation (Impatience rears its ugly head...)

Still on a bad run (getting owned by fishes), but could have lost less due to bad plays:



It has only been 5 days and my signs of impatience has shown so many times. I have already abandoned my strategy of playing just 6 tables to be more focused, and already moved to 9 to try to get in more hands. This has led to some very poor decisions in big hands, and the money that I've made in rakeback has already been lost to poor decisions. Impatience is definitely one of my primary weakness, so each day, I should try to write out any signs of my impatience, such as taking things too personal and trying to make a play against an individual.

I have also committed another poker flaw that my poker coach has explained not to do - that is to implement multiple strategies at once. Not only am I trying to work on my 3Betting game, but am also trying the low-ball strategy, opening up my early and middle position range, and playing fast tables. This is so bad because how do I know what strategy is effective, and measure the each strategy's progression if I do not do it one at a time. How do I know that my failure to play a hand properly is a result of 1) Not recognizing the situation properly 2) Playing too many tables and not having a sufficient thought process 3) Playing fast tables affects my thought process 4) Or simply, it's a bad strategy. The only way you can properly execute and measure the effectiveness of a strategy is to implement them one at a time until you have a sufficient sample size and statistics to validate it. Furthermore, this goes hand-in-hand with Jared's teaching that in order to play my A game and properly execute the same plays over and over, I need to train these skills to be a habit. If I'm playing too many tables while trying to learn something, my brain will be too overloaded to train these skills - I'll have to reinvent the wheel every time a similar situation pops up, rather then knowing and automatically executing the plays. Jared's best example is walking. You know how to walk because you've trained the skills to be a habit - it's automatic. But if you have to think about how to walk, such as, lift left leg, lean forward, put left leg down, press right calf, lift right leg, etc.... then you'll start to stumble, slow down, and get in your own way. Same concept with poker - train the skills to be a habit so that you automatically do them well, rather than having to think about it and getting in your own way.

Given that, I should stick to playing 6-tables again. It's only been 5 days into the month, so at least I caught myself early and still have ~25 days left. I know that the pressure of trying to make money has a lot to do with the impatience, but I should keep telling myself to not mix my learning time with my earning time. There's a time to learn, and a a time to earn, and this month is the time to learn.

Here's a hand where impatience costs alot... Villain is a regular who I've been 3betting light, and he's 4bet shoved me a few times... so we have history. When the check-raised me on the turn, I should have folded because at that point, I beat nothing. AA-KK would have continued to Cbet on that bad board and tried to get the money in. Same with QQ/TT. The only hand I beat is TJ or a flush draw, which probably would have bet on the turn. When he check-raised, he usually has the nuts, which was KJ.

MP3 ($329.75)
CO ($350.80)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($204)
BB ($469)
UTG ($208)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($198)
MP2 ($248)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 5
4 folds, MP3 bets $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, 2 folds
Flop: ($17) 5, Q, 10 (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero calls $12
Turn: ($41) 9 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $24, MP3 raises $80, Hero raises $157 (All-In), MP3 calls $101
River: ($403) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $403

Results:
Hero had 5, 5 (three of a kind, fives).
MP3 had K, J (straight, King high).

Outcome: MP3 won $400


Total Bad Play losses is now at $-514. Ouch, that's 2 1/2 buy-ins unnecessarily lost.

Aug 4 Self-Evaluation

Not a good day yesterday, even though there were not obvious or outlining mistakes:



=========================================================
In the hand below, a better and lower variance line could be to just call the 3Bet, see the flop, and maybe call the flop CBet, or look to do a check-raise on the right flop and fold to any aggression. However, the villain had a 5% button 3Bet, so there were a lot of hands in his range that AK is not far behind. Given that, I should still stick to the strategy of playing a low-ball low variance game instead of getting it in with 50/50 at best.

CO ($52.45)
Button ($511.60)
SB ($222.55)
BB ($200)
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($212)
MP1 ($229)
MP2 ($199)
Hero (MP3) ($200)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K
4 folds, Hero bets $6, 1 fold, Button raises to $18, 2 folds, Hero raises to $50, Button raises to $511.60 (All-In), Hero calls $150 (All-In)
Flop: ($403) 6, 7, 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: ($403) J (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($403) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $403 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had K, K (two pair, Kings and sevens).
Hero had A, K (one pair, sevens).

Outcome: Button won $400
===============================================================
Hopefully today is a better day....

"Should..."

Something Jared told me...

"You also use the word should often. A should represents an expectation that you didn't live up to. It's important to understand why you made the decisions you did, not just what the correction is. Understanding why exposes the flaws in your decision making and allows you to better learn the correct way. It may seem like a simple adjustment, but the effect on your learning is massive. "

I'm going to start most of my self-evaluation with "I should do xxx..." and see how much it improves my game. I would imagine it'll work wonders since the more I tell myself "I should..", the more I'll train these thoughts into habits.

Aug 3 Self-Evaluation

The day started off bad, then a few bad beats, but ended up on a positive note:



The hand below is a best case scenario of FPS (fancy play syndrome) gone wrong. When the villain flats my flop raise cbet, he is most likely doing it with overpairs, sets, or a draw, which on this flop is only a straight draw with 76 or JT. On the A turn, I think the check is OK to be deceptive so that I can extract some value from overpairs on the River. However, what I should have done when the villain (who plays a 13/11 style and is a tight/aggressive player who I have not seen bluff) shoved all-in over my min-raise was fold because at that point, TPTK usually is no good. JT got there... he could have flatted me on the flop with a set, tried to go for a check-raise but missed because I checked, and value betting the river. Furthermore, when he shoved, I should know that he has 1 pair beat... so chalk up another $84 loss from non-thinking poker plays.

Button ($314.65)
SB ($200)
BB ($323.30)
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($222)
Hero (MP1) ($224.50)
MP2 ($200.50)
MP3 ($267.90)
CO ($203)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $6, Hero calls $6, 6 folds
Flop: ($15) 9, 8, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero raises to $30, UTG+1 calls $20
Turn: ($75) A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($75) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $52, Hero raises to $104, UTG+1 raises to $186 (All-In), Hero calls $82

Total pot: $447 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG+1 had 10, J (straight, Jack high).
Hero had K, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: UTG+1 won $444

Lesson: I should stop getting tricky with 1 pair hands.
Total bad play losses: $-441
====================================================================

Here's a hand I thought I played well, but the results didn't come as expected... When I hit my straight on the turn, I was not concerned about the flush since it was a 3bet pot, and there was no hands with a flush in the villain's range (he's a tight regular). Therefore, when he led out, I put him on a straight as well, but since I had the A of spade for a redraw, I decided to over-shove and freeroll him, but too bad it didn't work:

MP2 ($214.30)
MP3 ($210.65)
CO ($200)
Button ($238.45)
SB ($358.95)
BB ($200)
UTG ($200)
Hero (UTG+1) ($335.10)
MP1 ($205.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $6, 6 folds, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $16
Flop: ($45) Q, 10, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($45) J (2 players)
BB bets $28, Hero raises to $313.10 (All-In), BB calls $150 (All-In)
River: ($401) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $401 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had Q, A (straight flush, King high).
Hero had A, K (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: BB won $398

Patience as it relates to Poker (and Life)

You'll hear me mention throughout my blog that I was impatient, or that my lack of patience caused me to do 'this and that'. But how does it exactly relates to poker? I'm sure many of us at one time or another have heard that good poker players are patient, or "I'm too impatient to play poker." So I asked my brother what he meant when he said he's too impatient to play poker, and his response was something along the line that he's driven by action, like in sports. He does not like to sit there all day waiting for good hands, so he starts playing spewy trying to look for action. Therefore, poker's not for him. Sounds familiar?

Put that idea aside for now, and think of patience in this way... I must forewarn you that this is not my idea, but is what I've learned from Jared. Patience is a result of understanding the complete process. When you're impatient, it is usually because you're missing a step in the process. Take for example some of the hands I've misplayed where I was impatient. It was not because I was bored and wanted action, but rather, I did not fully understand the process, plan, and strategy that was laid out, and therefore, did something that I was not suppose to do. Another example that you may be able to relate to is when you're dealt 22. You know that if you keep going all-in every time you get that hand, that in the long run, you'll lose money - so you probably never do it. But if you're looking for action, why are you not shoving that hand every time you get it? It is because you understand that part of the process, and that if you do that every time, you'll lose money in the long run, so naturally, you do not do it. Same concept applies to when you want to 'try' a play. Would you try it if you knew that it's a losing play? I'm assuming no. So, do you still think you're too impatient to play poker because of your emotions, or rather because of your lack of understanding on how to properly play poker?

Hopefully, everything I've mentioned above somewhat enlightened your idea of patience. So whether it is in poker or in life, when you realize or think that you're impatient, don't chalk it up as a given or that you were born that way, but look at what steps in the process you are lacking or do not fully understand. I sure wished I understood this concept when I was developing my businesses in Second Life... Peace out!

Aug 2 Self-Evaluation

Started off good, but played bad poker in the day's 2nd session:


There was no excuse for the hand below. It was just a lack of focus and failure to properly execute the strategy. I should have folded this hand on the turn when the villain Cbet after the board boated up, since he'll most likely take a free card if he was on a flush draw. So I lost $55 + $116 = $171 because of unfocus/impatient poker. Again, the strategy is to not overplay TP/OP, and focus on stealing rather than trying to chase big pots with 1 pair hands.


BB ($200)
Hero (UTG) ($208)
UTG+1 ($547.60)
MP1 ($208.25)
MP2 ($471.70)
CO ($200)
Button ($799.60)
SB ($223)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6, 3 folds, Button calls $6, 2 folds
Flop: ($21) J, Q, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $14, 1 fold, Button raises to $31, Hero calls $17
Turn: ($83) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $55, Hero calls $55
River: ($193) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $120, Hero calls $116 (All-In)

Total pot: $425 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 4, 4 (four of a kind, fours).
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).

Outcome: Button won $422
===============================================================
In the hand below, the villain was a fish who raises a lot preflop, but does not fold to a 3bet. Therefore, I had decided that his calling 3bet range was wide, and was willing to play for stacks with the QQ. However, when the turn came, this plan should have been abandon given that the flop had a lot of straights/two pairs for any calling ranges. While I did have a straight draw, I think the more optimal play that's in line with the strategy is to just check/fold. I


MP3 ($218.25)
CO ($80)
Button ($190)
Hero (SB) ($200)
BB ($40)
UTG ($82)
UTG+1 ($209.35)
MP1 ($58.60)
MP2 ($41.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
6 folds, Button bets $6, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, Button calls $18
Flop: ($50) 10, 9, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $39, Button calls $39
Turn: ($128) J (2 players)
Hero bets $137 (All-In), Button calls $127 (All-In)
River: ($382) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $382 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 7 (straight, Jack high).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and Jacks).

Outcome: Button won $379
===============================================================
So far, total losses from unfocus/impatient poker has cost me $357.

Aug. 1 Self Evaluation

Results from yesterday:


Here are some questionable hands:

In the below hand, the BB is an aggressive villain with a 7% 3Bet, and this K9s had too much value to fold, so I chose to limp knowing villain will raise, and 3Bet him. On the flop, the board was pretty dry except for a flush draw which I had, and my K outs may be good - thus, decided to play for stacks because I'm only crushed by a set still with outs, and can have him dominated by a lower flush draw. On the flop, my equity versus a range of 22+ and AJs+ was 45%, so wasn't too far behind that range.

BB ($244.05)
UTG ($515.65)
Button ($182.70)
Hero (SB) ($329.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, K
2 folds, Hero calls $1, BB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12
Flop: ($36) J, 6, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $21, BB raises to $46, Hero raises to $99, BB raises to $226.05 (All-In), Hero calls $127.05
Turn: ($488.10) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($488.10) A (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $488.10 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had 9, K (high card, Ace).
BB had 6, 6 (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: BB won $486.10

Board: Jd 6h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.182% 45.18% 00.00% 32653 0.00 { Kd9d }
Hand 1: 54.818% 54.82% 00.00% 39617 0.00 { 22+, AJs+ }
===================================================================

In this second hand, the villain was unknown (never really played with him to get a read). I put him on, 22, 33, 55, TT+. Given that he made such a large reraise on a dry flop, I lean more towards a big overpair, so I took the route of flatting the flop/turn and forced him to fire a 3rd barrel in case he just had overcards. However, when the T hit on the turn, the only overpair I beat on the flop got there, which makes my turn call pretty bad - should have folded and saved $59.00. When he shoves the river, I'm pretty sure he had KK/AA, but more on the line of AA:

MP3 ($134.40)
CO ($257.65)
Button ($104.40)
SB ($224.90)
BB ($200)
UTG ($311.45)
UTG+1 ($200)
Hero (MP1) ($200)
MP2 ($227.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J
2 folds, Hero bets $6, MP2 calls $6, 5 folds
Flop: ($15) 3, 5, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP2 raises to $35, Hero calls $25
Turn: ($85) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $59, Hero calls $59
River: ($203) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $127.95 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $203 | Rake: $3
Results:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won $200
=================================================================

Similar situation to the above hand - villain is unknown. When I 3bet an early raiser and a player out of position flats my 3bet, an alarm went off. His range is usually AQ+, TT+. When he check/call the flop, and the turn comes 9, the only legitimate hand I beat is JJ. TT got there on the flop, 99 just got there, AKs with diamonds got there. So I think this hand is a check fold given that there are more hands that beat me than hands I beat:

Button ($307.85)
SB ($242.05)
BB ($225.40)
UTG ($356.40)
UTG+1 ($81.80)
MP1 ($201)
MP2 ($190)
MP3 ($106.15)
Hero (CO) ($262.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q

1 fold, UTG+1 bets $4, 2 folds, MP3 calls $4, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, SB calls $19, 3 folds
Flop: ($50) 2, 10, 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30
Turn: ($110) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($110) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero folds

Total pot: $110 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won $107
================================================================

The villain's line in this hand was somewhat weird. When he checked the turn and raised my river bet, my reads were: 1) He has AA and going for pot control 2) He already flopped the nuts or turned it with JJ/JT, maybe hoped I was on some kind of backdoor flush-draw. However, it was hard to see what he would re-raise with on the river, given that a J was in my range when I check/called the flop. I'm leaning more towards AA because it's a line that I usually take, especially when the the villain (me in this case) flats his cbet out of position on a dry board, plus, he wouldn't do this with QQ. If that was my read, I think I should have turned my hand into a bluff and shoved over his raise because then at that point, his AA is nothing more than a bluff-catcher. But I opted for the lower variance line and folded.

MP1 ($255.50)
MP2 ($204.60)
MP3 ($220.55)
CO ($228.15)
Button ($230.35)
SB ($215.15)
Hero (BB) ($200)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K

1 fold, UTG+1 bets $8, 6 folds, Hero calls $6
Flop: ($17) J, 4, J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $12, Hero calls $12
Turn: ($41) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($41) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG+1 raises to $60, Hero folds

Total pot: $81 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG+1 didn't show
Outcome: UTG+1 won $78

That's it for yesterday... on to Aug. 2...

Bad Habits / Leaks to Plug

Last month ended on a bad note because I was reverting back to a lot of my bad habits/leaks, most of which consisted of:

1) Impatience - This is usually a result of me trying to chase money and forcing the issue. I would end up overplaying big pairs such as AA/KK or TPTK (top pair top kicker) such as AK/AQ, especially on a dry board when I know that if I'm getting my money all-in, that the villain usually has 1 pair beat. But because I wanted to 'get paid' on my big hands, I get my money in bad... so have to work on being more patient later. I'm sure there will be spots in this month where I showed a lack of patience, so I'll use those opportunities to talk more about it, and regain my focus on it.

2) Lack of Focus - This is just a direct result lately of waking up early and playing poker right away. It is hard to have a thorough thought-process on each hand and what the optimal line is when your mind is not awake. This blog should help.

3) Not executing the strategy - I play NL200 FR (full-ring), so when most villains show aggression, they usually have a good hand. The strategy for FR is really to just focus on stealing, both preflop and postflop to cover your blinds, and wait for monster hands (sets, straights, flush, etc). Don't try to chase the money, but let it come to you.

So my strategy for this month:
1) Play low-ball pot control with big pairs
2) Be deceptive by using the low-ball strategy
3) Let the stealing plays be the aggression in my game, not the big hands
4) Play 6-tables for the 1st week of August to test results of playing more thinking poker rather than 9 to try to get in volume

With that said, let's begin Session 1 for August....

A Preseason Monologue

I don't even know where to start since so much has happened since I last posted an update. So rather than delving into the past, I'll just keep it simple and move forward. You can read everything from the past here on wikipedia.

The reason I call this post "The Preseason" is because it is what it is, a warm-up to what I hope is a road back to recovery/stardom. If you don't know by now, one of my primary business, JuiceTrading, is a software development 'company' for Sports Arbitrageurs. I say company loosely because so far, it's only me and my partner/developer - and we've been working on this business for close to five years now. If a picture is worth a thousand words, than hopefully, this picture below will save me from having to explain in detail what sports arbitrage is:



In short, on April 15, 2009, our program bought the Under 99 in the 1st half of the Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls game at the price of -105 on one site, and turned around and bought the Over 99 of the same 1st half at the price of +112 for a difference of 7 juice points. For traders, this is similar to buying a share for $105 and selling it for $112. We don't care what the end result of the 1st half was, as long as it did not land on 99 since it'll be a push and will nullify any transaction. There's another example in the image above, but it's basically the same concept.

Before you go any further, keep in mind that we actually do not do any of the trading ourselves (not yet anyways), nor are we involved in any of the online transactions/activities. Our role is to develop a software that automates most of the sports arbitrage processes for our clients. Hopefully, you have made the connection that our preseason/season coincides with that of the NFL/NCAAF and goes through the end of the NBA/NCAAB season. Those are currently the only four niche market/sports that we work with.

Having said all of the above, one thing I have learned from my multiple failures/collapse/gone-busto is that you should always have more than one income stream, which takes us to.... poker... and is part of the reason for this blog (I'll explain more later). If you're an avid poker player, than you'll understand a lot of the things I'm going to write about, and the things I will write about. But when I went broke in '08, everyone told me to just go get a job. However, when you're in the hole as deep as the I was in, getting a job just won't cut it. I actually did go that route for 3 months, but earning $20/hr before tax wasn't getting me anywhere. So what I did was analyze my: options, skill sets, etc, etc, etc. and realized that poker was probably one of the better options since I can work as many hours as I want, and what I make is a direct result of what I put in to work/study. This is where it gets very technical.

At first, I was only a break-even player and making money just from rake back. But, after living/studing/eating poker for months, and investing in a coach, I am now probably a 1-1.5BB/100 winner. 1 BB is 1 big bet, so at the limit where the blinds are $1/$2, being a 1BB winner means you make $4 per 100 hand. I generally average about 500 hands per hour playing 9-12 tables with a buyin of $200 per table, which equates to $20, plus, I earn about $.04 per hand from rakeback, bringing my hourly rate to about $40/hr. My target goal for the end of the year is to be a 3BB/100 winner, which makes me a $80/hr player. Here are my results for the last 2 months. Before you think this is easy, think how hard it is to stay focus for hours on end constantly thinking and evaluating - not counting the 2hrs+/day of studying I do in conjunction with logging in hands. While these results look exciting, everything actually went out the door as fast as they came in, and I'm still here with empty pockets:

June was a good month: $8500 winnings + $4000 rakeback = $12,500 profit


July was probably one of my worser months: -$1000 winnings + $3500 in rakeback = $2500 profit:



I am currently getting coaching, and will be going to Macau, China in January for poker boot camp for 3 months (as well as network for JuiceTrading). However, I am not doing this so that I can play poker, but doing it so that I can learn how to teach poker, stake players, and earn a percentage of their income/profit - and I'm sure given the state of the economy, there will be quite a few intelligent but unemployed people out there. Help them help me to help them (whaaaa???)...

With all that said, one of the reason I started up this post is because it gives me something to get my mind focused every morning. I now get up at 5/6am to play so that I can work on JuiceTrading during the day/afternoon. This makes it very hard to play poker since my mind is not awake, and I think according to my mental coach (you'll hear me talk a lot about mental coach, mental strength, focus, etc that I learn from my coach Jared Tendler - google him, he's fantastico), writing things out and evaluating everything from the previous day should help me focus and learn better - so I'll be blogging every morning to kick my brain into gear, and keep everyone posted on what's going on.

To finish it off, I peg the cost of getting out of debt, purchasing back my integrity (which I have none b/c of my Second Life failures), and being able to get back into Second Life at around $200,000. Yes, I can just walk away from Second Life, but to me, integrity, honesty, and all that good stuff that comes with being a moral person far outweighs money - plus, I'm an avid believer of Virtual Worlds. Given my progreession in poker, and last year's results from JuiceTrading, I think this is MAY achievable either by the middle or end of 2010. It's a long time away, but not bad considering around this time last year, I was getting married, had no job, no income, and in debt of about $300,000.

Until tomorrow...

PS: If you're a non-US resident interested in Sports Arbitrage, feel free to contact me. Yes, this is such a marketing sham, but I need it....